Free Trading Tool

    Risk of Ruin Calculator

    A profitable strategy can still blow up an account if the position sizing is wrong. This shows you how likely that is before it happens.

    Position size decides survival

    Two traders with the same edge can end the year at +40% and −80%. The difference is almost never the signals — it's how much of the account each trade puts at risk.

    How It Works

    1

    Enter your edge

    Win rate and average reward-to-risk from your journal or backtest.

    2

    Set risk per trade

    The percentage of equity a full stop-out costs you.

    3

    Define ruin

    The drawdown level at which you'd stop, or a prop account would fail you.

    4

    Compare scenarios

    Halve the risk per trade and watch the probability collapse.

    Risk of Ruin Calculator

    Estimate how likely a losing streak is to take your account down to a level you can't recover from, given your edge and your risk per trade.

    Risk of Ruin
    0.0%
    Chance of hitting your drawdown threshold within the simulated run.
    Expectancy Per Trade
    0.35 R
    Negative expectancy makes ruin a matter of time, not chance.
    Median Ending Equity
    392% of start
    Middle outcome across 2,000 simulated runs.

    Want defined risk on every signal?

    SimpleAlgo V5 prints volatility-based stop and target levels directly on your TradingView chart, so every trade has a measurable R before you enter.

    Frequent questions

    More free trading tools

    Guides, definitions and indicator pages on the same topic.